Good morning and happy Friday,

​

This week the International Energy Agency released its annual World Energy Outlook, proclaiming that “Major shifts underway today are set to result in a considerably different global energy system by the end of this decade.” To wit, the IEA predicts that fossil fuel usage will peak by 2030, when nearly 50% of the world’s electricity will come from renewables.

​

Great news, but alas, not enough to hit climate targets – in fact, “spending on oil and gas is two times greater than it should be if nations want to stay on track for net-zero emissions.” In a somewhat awkward coincidence, earlier this month Exxon Mobil spent $60 billion in its biggest acquisition in 25 years, and this week, in the “second energy megadeal this month” Chevron ponied up $53 billion to acquire rival Hess.

​

Read on for more.

This week, the DOE issued a draft roadmap to address transmission grid interconnection challenges, which it says is “intended to serve as a practical guide for implementing near- and long-term solutions to interconnect clean energy sources and to clear the existing backlog of solar, wind, and battery projects seeking to get built.” Here are some key points:

• It’s no secret that interconnection queues have become monstrously long, with the process stretching to a frightening five years on average (check out Utility Dive’s graphic comparing installed capacity and active queue capacity in 2010 vs. 2022).
• While “about a quarter” of the recommendations in DOE’s draft roadmap align with FERC Order 2023, the long-awaited rule designed to streamline the interconnection process, the roadmap “includes measures that go beyond FERC’s reforms.”
• That’s welcome news, as some industry experts observed that Order 2023 might not speed things up much in many parts of the country. Comments on the draft roadmap can be submitted through November 22.

Road to reform? The draft roadmap calls for equity considerations to be included in all aspects of the interconnection process; other recommendations include creating new (and expanding existing) fast-track interconnection options, considering market-based approaches to rationing interconnection access, investigating inter-regional transmission solutions through joint transmission planning efforts, and exploring options for separating the interconnection process from network upgrade investments. Time for the rubber to hit the road. 

A recently released paper in Nature Communications presents a thought-provoking finding: the researchers argue that globally, solar has achieved “a virtuous cycle” and reached an “irreversible tipping point” such that subsidies may no longer be needed. Here’s the skinny:

• The researchers set out to find which policy would “tip” the world from being fossil-centric to being renewables-centric. Lo and behold, they discovered that at least in the case of solar “it had already tipped.”
• A key difference in this study is that unlike other studies that made forecasts based on more static assumptions, this study used a set of three models “that incorporate that virtuous cycle between expansion of green technologies and falling costs.”
• After much crunching and modeling, they concluded that thanks to “technological trajectories set in motion by past policy,” solar is on a glide path to “dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies.”

Surprised? The researchers were, too. Of course, there’s a catch: this assumes “a set of four barriers can be overcome or avoided.” These are (drumroll, please): suitably modern and flexible transmission grids, financing for solar deployment in developing countries, advances in energy storage to shore up supply chains and find alternative technologies, and policies to reduce opposition to renewables, particularly from those with vested economic interests in fossil fuels.

• Coaled Shoulder: Xcel Energy to replace its last operating coal plant in Minnesota with hundreds of turbines
• Nuclear Revival: Nuclear fuel company on a mission to revitalize the nation's nuclear power industry
• Wolverine Legislation: Michigan to move approval of renewable projects to the state level in legislature

• The Marshall County IN Commissioners approve 12-month moratorium on battery storage
• Brasher, NY places 12-month moratorium on battery storage
• Columbiana County OH County Commissioners approved bans on wind and solar projects for the last three townships not already covered

As reliance on wind and solar energy expands, concerns about end-of-life management of disused equipment have also increased. Although opportunities for recycling wind turbine blades and solar panels are increasing – buoyed by incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act – the possibility that significant amounts of waste could be created looms large in the minds of some members of the public.

Fortunately, a recent article in Nature Physics puts this problem in perspective. Simply put, waste from solar panels is "a drop in the ocean” compared to other types of waste, including waste from fossil fuels. The figure below “shows that 35 years of cumulative PV module waste (2016-2050) is dwarfed by the waste generated by fossil fuel energy and other common waste streams.”

Putting a finer point on it, the authors note that “in fact, we globally produce and manage approximately the same mass of coal ash per month as the amount of PV module waste we expect to produce over the next 35 years.” (emphasis added)

The article also addresses the notion that solar panels are toxic: not an issue, say the authors. In 2022, crystalline silicon PV modules comprised 97% of global market share, followed by cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules at 3% of global market share – and these two most common modules don’t contain harmful materials.

Reporter Dan Gearino at Inside Climate News commented that if he were a solar developer, “I would print thousands of copies of this three-page piece and hand them to everybody at local hearings.”